VR will be big, AR will be bigger (and take longer). But as in most early-stage tech markets, growth will be curved, not straight. There will be a few billion dollars of revenue this year, a progressive ramp in 2017 and a hoped-for inflection point in 2018 (when AR could deliver that magic combination of hero device, long battery life, cellular capability, strong app ecosystem and telco cross-subsidization).

But AR/VR is still in the first of the four stages of tech market development (hype cycle, facing reality, liftoff, sustainable market).

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